Jake Arrieta: Breaking Balls Are Now His Friends

 

A picture or two is worth a thousand words (See below the 3 graphs). Jake Arrieta has always been blessed with a power arm (94-96MPH) that oozed potential. In Baltimore, he teased towards being that guy, but never could get right. His consolation prize: getting shipped to Chicago with Pedro Strop for Scott Feldman, who pitched himself into nice contract thereafter in Houston. But to set this up, I took Arrieta’s last 44 starts with Baltimore and Chicago (see below the pitch break down). And looked to see if regression showed anything at all. I measured % of breaking balls vs. Slugging both against RH/LH hitters. Then, did so for the number of breaking balls thrown. The latter, proved more insightful.

RH Hitters have been used and abused by Arrieta’s breaking stuff; and LH hitters, haven’t faired much better. Now, the correlation/causation is not strong, but it seems he’s really improved confidence in going to the slider and curves versus that heater and sinker that have been his typical calling card in the bigs, so far.

Lately, he’s thrown 50-60 of these wicked sliders and nasty curves to get the bad boys in Boston, New York and Philly out. Success breeding confidence to throw that slider in any count? Seems so to me.

Game Hard Breaking Offspeed Pitch Count Break_Perc
MIN@BAL (4/6/12) 52 34 11 97 35%
NYA@BAL (4/11/12) 66 40 1 107 37%
BAL@CHA (4/16/12) 66 39 5 110 35%
BAL@ANA (4/21/12) 48 36 2 86 42%
OAK@BAL (4/27/12) 65 32 6 103 31%
BAL@NYA (5/2/12) 62 41 7 110 37%
TEX@BAL (5/8/12) 65 28 4 97 29%
TBA@BAL (5/13/12) 42 24 13 79 30%
BAL@WAS (5/18/12) 57 34 12 103 33%
BOS@BAL (5/23/12) 60 31 6 97 32%
BAL@TOR (5/29/12) 59 30 7 96 31%
BAL@TBA (6/3/12) 54 20 9 83 24%
PHI@BAL (6/8/12) 46 30 7 83 36%
PIT@BAL (6/13/12) 79 22 7 108 20%
BAL@NYN (6/18/12) 66 19 18 103 18%
WAS@BAL (6/24/12) 66 22 13 101 22%
CLE@BAL (6/29/12) 50 19 20 89 21%
BAL@ANA (7/5/12) 53 26 3 82 32%
MIN@BAL (4/5/13) 51 28 12 91 31%
BAL@BOS (4/10/13) 51 18 0 69 26%
TBA@BAL (4/16/13) 71 35 1 107 33%
LAN@BAL (4/21/13) 62 29 0 91 32%
BAL@DET (6/17/13) 46 25 7 78 32%
MIL@CHN (7/30/13) 69 23 1 93 25%
SLN@CHN (8/16/13) 65 28 1 94 30%
WAS@CHN (8/21/13) 59 15 4 78 19%
CHN@LAN (8/26/13) 68 37 3 108 34%
PHI@CHN (9/1/13) 70 31 1 102 30%
MIL@CHN (9/7/13) 59 24 0 83 29%
CHN@PIT (9/13/13) 49 27 2 78 35%
CHN@MIL (9/19/13) 44 38 6 88 43%
PIT@CHN (9/25/13) 45 31 8 84 37%
SLN@CHN (5/3/14) 55 27 0 82 33%
CHN@CHA (5/8/14) 50 28 3 81 35%
CHN@SLN (5/13/14) 50 26 5 81 32%
CHN@SDN (5/22/14) 47 36 11 94 38%
CHN@SFN (5/27/14) 58 30 6 94 32%
NYN@CHN (6/3/14) 46 51 7 104 49%
MIA@CHN (6/8/14) 40 48 5 93 52%
CHN@PHI (6/13/14) 33 61 5 99 62%
CHN@MIA (6/18/14) 54 47 4 105 45%
CIN@CHN (6/24/14) 42 51 1 94 54%
CHN@BOS (6/30/14) 47 62 11 120 52%

 

 

 

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